Bibliografie
Journal Article
Delays, Masks, the Elderly, and Schools: First Covid-19 Wave in the Czech Republic
, , , , , , , , , , , ,
: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology vol.84,
: EF16_013/0001740, GA MŠk
: covid-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions, Approximate Bayesian computation
: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11538-022-01031-5
(eng): Running across the globe for nearly 2 years, the Covid-19 pandemic keeps demonstrating its strength. Despite a lot of understanding, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of interventions still persists. We developed an age-structured epidemic model parameterized with epidemiological and sociological data for the first Covid-19 wave in the Czech Republic and found that (1) starting the spring 2020 lockdown 4 days earlier might prevent half of the confirmed cases by the end of lockdown period, (2) personal protective measures such as face masks appear more effective than just a realized reduction in social contacts, (3) the strategy of sheltering just the elderly is not at all effective, and (4) leaving schools open is a risky strategy. Despite vaccination programs, evidence-based choice and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains an effective weapon against the Covid-19 pandemic.
: FN
: 30302