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Journal Article

Moment set selection for the SMM using simple machine learning

Žíla Eric, Kukačka Jiří

: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization vol.212, 1 (2023), p. 366-391

: GA20-14817S, GA ČR

: Agent-based model, Machine learning, Simulated method of moments, Stepwise selection

: 10.1016/j.jebo.2023.05.040

: http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2023/E/kukacka-0574253.pdf

: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268123001944?via%3Dihub

(eng): This paper addresses the moment selection issue of the simulated method of moments, an estimation technique commonly applied to intractable agent-based models. We develop a simple machine learning extension reducing arbitrariness and automating the moment choice. Two algorithms are proposed: backward stepwise moment elimination and forward stepwise moment selection. The methodology is tested using simulations on a Markov-switching multifractal framework and two popular financial agent-based models with increasing complexity. We find that both algorithms can identify multiple moment sets that outperform all benchmark sets. Moreover, we achieve considerable in-sample estimation precision gains of up to 66 percent for agent-based models. Finally, an out-of-sample empirical exercise with S&P 500 data strongly supports the practical applicability of our methodology as the estimated models pass the validity test of overidentifying restrictions.

: JC

: 10201

07.01.2019 - 08:39